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POLAJŽER, B., SRPAK, D.
Evaluation of Probability-Distribution Models for Wind-Power Forecast Error
KOMUNALNA ENERGETIKA / POWER ENGINERING, 53
This paper discusses different probability-distribution models for wind-power forecast error. Models known from the literature (beta, Weibull, gamma) are discussed along with the models with extended-skew generalized-normal distribution. Furthermore, a versatile model is discussed, which enables analytical calculation of the percentile function; however, it is sensitive to wavelets in the probability distribution. Obtained results show that beta, Weibull and gamma probability distributions do not capture the actual (empirical) one; far more adequate are models with skew generalized-normal probability distribution.
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